THE NYT: Israel - Buildup to the Next War - by Noah Feldman
Israel - Buildup to the Next War - by Noah Feldman
The prospect of an Israeli attack on Iran before the next president’s inauguration in January is not just the stuff of airport thrillers. Much of the Israeli military establishment and Israeli public currently believes that a nuclear Iran is an existential threat. This gives Israel a motive for action much stronger than that of the U.S., for whom an Iranian bomb would primarily be a blow to our interests in the gulf region. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert or whoever emerges as his successor in September might well be prepared to take risks that would not be worth it for the United States, especially given the vulnerability of our troops in Iraq.
Any Iranian movement against U.S. assets would give President Bush just about the only domestically viable political excuse for bombing Iran that is possible to imagine. Because that would put Iran at war with the United States, not just Israel, Iran might choose to hold back. That likelihood, coupled with President Bush’s visceral support for Israel, might be enough reason for the administration to tolerate an Israeli attack that did not too directly implicate the United States. Given the uncertainty surrounding a potential Obama administration, this autumn may be Israel’s last and best chance to go after Iran’s nuclear capability.In the brave new world of our immersion in Iraq, we have increasingly found ourselves waking up with strange bedfellows. Strangest of these, of course, is Iran itself, with whom we have been quietly consulting over Iraq’s affairs because neither country wants an all-out civil war in that country.
