The Atlantic: The End of the West? by Charles Kupchan
The End of the West? by Charles Kupchan
"The American era appears to be alive and well. The U.S. economy is more than twice the size of the next biggest—Japan's—and the United States spends more on defense than the world's other major powers combined. China is regularly identified as America's next challenger, but it is decades away from entering the top ranks. The terrorist attacks in New York and Washington certainly punctured the sense of security that arose from the end of the Cold War and the triumph of the West, but they have done little to compromise U.S. hegemony. Indeed, they have reawakened America's appetite for global engagement. At least for the foreseeable future, the United States will continue to enjoy primacy, taking on Islamic terrorism even as it keeps a watchful eye on China. That encapsulates the conventional wisdom—and it is woefully off the mark. Not only is American primacy far less durable than it appears, but it is already beginning to diminish. And the rising challenger is not China or the Islamic world but the European Union, an emerging polity that is in the process of marshaling the impressive resources and historical ambitions of Europe's separate nation-states.
The EU's annual economic output has reached about $8 trillion, compared with America's $10 trillion, and the euro will soon threaten the dollar's global dominance. Europe is strengthening its collective consciousness and character and forging a clearer sense of interests and values that are quite distinct from those of the United States.
Editorial note EU-Digest: Mr. Kupchan's theory would make sense if the European political establishment would be able to move away from their policies of inward looking self-interest and be able to convey the need for unity and Pan-European patriotism to the citizens of the EU. At this moment in time there still seems to be a complete disconnect between the popular conception of what the EU stands for and its long term goals and the EU leadership. Indeed, if this major hurdle can be overcome the sky will be the limit of what the EU will be able to achieve as a world power in its own right.
