The Independent: The great American economic horror story - Stephen King
Earlier in the year, economic life seemed so straightforward. Growth around the world was buoyant. Inflationary pressures were building. Excess liquidity – however defined – was a major worry. The vast majority of central banks were planning on raising interest rates. Over the past few weeks, though, this consensus has completely broken down. Investors don't know what to think. Should they still be worried about inflation? Or, instead, should they fret about a sub-prime-induced recession? Should they regard the Federal Reserve's recent interest-rate cuts as temporary aberrations, with rates likely to rise again next year? Or are we on the verge of a sustained period of interest-rate reductions in the US, the UK and elsewhere?
For the Federal Reserve, rapid rate cuts might eventually have to be the order of the day. Politically, it's difficult to imagine US policymakers presiding over rising unemployment and shrinking economic activity, whatever the rate of inflation. The story, though, might not end there. Falling US interest rates would make the control of inflation even more difficult within the emerging world, eventually increasing the temptation to "go it alone" and leave the dollar to its own destiny. Might this lead to a dollar collapse, a loss of US monetary credibility and the end of an economic pax Americana?
Labels: US, World Economy
